The President's Crash Dive Towards Removal from Office

Occupy Portland Launch Rally
October 6, 2011
http://www.aflitt.com/occupyportlandoctober2011
© A. F. Litt 2011, All Rights Reserved

By my count, there are now four grounds to impeach Trump, and the fifth appears to be on its way. Our latest video explains: pic.twitter.com/K08kTMj9wj

— Robert Reich (@RBReich) April 4, 2017

Former Labor Secretary Robert Reich's video outlining four or five grounds to impeach the president is interesting, and even more now, more than a month after it was first released. And what a month it has been... But even at this point, most of these points are pretty weak tea.  

However, Reich's list keeps getting longer since he first suggested the possibility of impeachment based on the emoluments clause at the time of the inauguration, and his arguments supporting each point tend to be getting stronger as more and more evidence accumulates...

It really is starting to feel like it is just a matter of time before something happens to really put President Trump's job in jeopardy, especially as the president continues to flail, wilder and wilder, with each passing week.

If the administration is brought down, it is likely that it will not be for something that's already happened, for acts already committed, but for something that may happen very soon if the the president, his staff, and his cabinet continue on their current trajectory.

It is not the time right now, yet, to be discussing impeachment, but the current investigations need to be thorough.  The nation needs these concerns to be addressed and this is a very different situation than the calls for the impeachment of the last two presidents and the actual impeachment of President Clinton before that.

Since the impeachment of President Clinton, too much time has been spent dwelling on removing the opposing party's chief executive from office.  

The proceedings against President Clinton were far more motivated by politics than by any true harm he did to the office or the country.  This is not to say that he did no wrong, lying to Congress is a serious infraction, one that should still be taken very seriously, and a reprimand was clearly in order, but to move towards actual removal from office over lying about an extramarital affair is a bit like firing a RPG at a housefly.  It does more damage than good.

Under President Bush, when the Democrats took control of Congress, there was a lot of speculation that they would follow in the GOP's footsteps and that the House would vote on Articles of Impeachment.  Again, though, this would have been motivated by politics, and any charges against the president would have been pretty well trumped up to justify such an action.

Not liking the policies and practices of the president is not grounds for impeachment or removal.

In a way, that was a very scary moment for our democracy.  If the cooler heads did not prevail with the Democrats under President Bush, after what happened with President Clinton, a precedent and tradition could have been established where impeaching the president became a basic political move when power shifted in Congress.

Such a development would have been devastating for our nation.

It is almost certain that, if the House Democrats even held a vote on impeaching President Bush, the House Republicans would have voted on impeaching President Obama.  Large sections of the base of both parties cried out for such actions towards the other party's presidents through both administrations, and such moves would have been easy red meat to throw at these constituents, but the costs to our nation would have been terrible.

It would be simple to dismiss the current calls for the impeachment of President Trump as being little more than the latest incarnation of these misguided political urges, but this is a very different situation.  True, there has been politically motivated noise about impeachment since the election, but over the last few weeks, evidence is mounting that requires investigation.

This time, there may be true "high crimes and misdemeanors" in play.  

As I mentioned earlier, I really do feel that the focus of our nation, for the moment, needs to not be on the scandalous possibilities of a potential impeachment trial, but rather on ensuring that a very thorough investigation takes place into the concerns about the Trump campaign, transition, and current administration, and yes, this includes the president himself, if the evidence demands it. 

The White House needs to support these investigations.  To do otherwise would tarnish their administration, undermine foreign policy, and, in the worst case scenario, if a cover up or obstruction of justice occurs, their fight against the investigations might the very thing that brings down the president, not whatever may or may not have happened during the campaign and transition.

Unfortunately for our country, we have a president who, in the shaky leg days of his first time ever holding public office, seems too focused on ego and paranoia, and if he continues on the course he is on, it seems very likely that he will overreach at some point in a way that will transcend partisan party politics and lead to a bi-partisan vote on Articles of Impeachment.

The White House needs to bring in some experienced grown-ups to help them through this, someone needs to get the president off of Twitter, and the administration's political opponents need to calm down and focus on pushing for impartial investigations, including a Special Prosecutor, rather than getting lost in partisan hot flashes about throwing their nemesis out of office.

Politically, removing the president would accomplish very little for the Democrats and the Left. The next two men in succession are actually further to the right than President Trump is, and will be devastatingly more effective at pursuing their agendas than the current White House has been through the first 100-plus days of his term.

For the Democrats and the Left, the best result here they could ever dream of would be the president remaining in office after potentially burning almost all of the support from the rest of his party, support which was, at best, tenuous from the start.  It's the Lame Duck result. Even if the president was able to re-build his support over time, it would disable and disarm him for a significant chunk of his first term, and it would invite strong primary challenges against his nomination for a second term.

With the current polarity in our nation, the lack of trust towards the press, and the rise of "alternative facts," asking either side to set aside politics right now is probably an exercise in futility, but it is what is truly needed over the coming weeks. The Left needs to quit screaming for the president's head, the Right needs to quit screaming that it is all "fake news," and all sides, including the White House, need to work together to put these concerns behind us.

At this point, the need for a Special Prosecutor seems evident.  Before the firing of FBI Director Comey, maybe not, but after, it is probably the only way to start restoring trust.

When the results of these investigations are in, then it will be up to everyone to determine whether or not President Trump should remain in office.  Both the House and the Trump Cabinet will need to look at those results, because, depending on the president's behavior between now and then, it may fall upon his own administration to seek his removal from office through Section IV of the 25th Amendment. 

By my count, there are now four grounds to impeach Trump, and the fifth appears to be on its way. Our latest video explains: pic.twitter.com/K08kTMj9wj

— Robert Reich (@RBReich) April 4, 2017

Barack and Valdimir's Big Crimean Adventure

Earlier, on Facebook, I posted, "Remember a couple weeks ago when Russia was just weird, not scary?" 

Mostly, this was just a joke about a comment I made during the Olympics, saying the reverse and not meant to be a real conversation about the current geopolitical situation.

The truth here, this is all negotiating tactics right now and it is a little scary that Russia is going this big in the opening round. 

Most likely, the end result will be a functionally independent Crimea with a Russian puppet government and increased military presence to secure Russia's only warm water Atlantic naval base.

I could get more into the nitty gritty details here, but I really don't have the time.

It is still a pretty scary situation, though, because these things could go south with some really bad effects that essentially take us back to a Cold War relationship with Russia, but I think (hope) both sides are too smart to let that happen.

If played well, the US and the west will receive some important concessions from Russia in return, concessions they'd never receive unless something this critical to Russian state security was at stake.

Since these sorts of things will never be disclosed by either side, though, expect Obama to get roasted by the right for letting Crimea fall on his watch.

When does it become too much? Some tea partiers are now calling for Obama’s “legal” assassination

Horrifying. This is what we get when the far right gets a free pass from the mainstream media. How about nightly fact checks on the evening news programs? These people are dangerous (the so-called journalists on the far right) when they inflame potential domestic terrorists so they can drive up ratings with their "info-taiment" shock talk, and then run from the responsibility when one of these nut jobs actually takes everything they've been saying as fact and starts building bombs or firing off shots.

Do they have the right to say the things they do? Well, I suppose they do. But the mainstream media, more so, has the responsibility of challenging what they say, from Fox News to Glenn Beck and beyond. Instead, they ignore it, or even worse, take it seriously and start reporting on the same "stories" these dangerous anti-journalists are fabricating without any real reporting to clarify fact and to separate truth from fiction.

When, not if, but when we have the next OKC, I'll be blaming the major mainstream news outlets as much as I'll be blaming the right wing "info-tainment" outlets. Perhaps even more so, because they truly are dropping the journalism ball where Beck and folks make it very clear that they are pandering to their viewers and listeners for the sake of the holy dollar and have little real interest in actually being journalists.

A lot of these folks cite the Bible for their political philosophies, well here's one for them:

Romans 13 (NSV): 1 Let every person be subject to the governing authorities. For there is no authority except from God, and those that exist have been instituted by God. 2 Therefore he who resists the authorities resists what God has appointed, and those who resist will incur judgment. 3 For rulers are not a terror to good conduct, but to bad. Would you have no fear of him who is in authority? Then do what is good, and you will receive his approval, 4 for he is God's servant for your good. But if you do wrong, be afraid, for he does not bear the sword in vain; he is the servant of God to execute his wrath on the wrongdoer. 5 Therefore one must be subject, not only to avoid God's wrath but also for the sake of conscience. 6 For the same reason you also pay taxes, for the authorities are ministers of God, attending to this very thing. 7 Pay all of them their dues, taxes to whom taxes are due, revenue to whom revenue is due, respect to whom respect is due, honor to whom honor is due.

Christian Tea Party Terrorist Claims 2nd Amendment Authority To Shoot President Obama! | Americans Against the Tea Party:

Shutdown Blues & The Promise of Reform in 2014

Yes, it’s been quiet here, as I warned it would be after the election.  There may be another post on that later.

Shutdown.  Blah, blah…  All the stuff from the webs.  Been posting a ton of stuff on the Facebook page about this…

But this is where we may see some change in the future.  Maybe things needed to get this bad in D.C. before real change in Congress was possible.

First, a little about how this happened, in my eyes, at least. 

The Tea Partiers who are pushing this are concerned about jobs, this is a job retention strategy.  Their jobs, yes, self-preservation, yes, but that’s what it is.

The districts that elected them want to see some action against Obama and Obama care is about the only real policy / legislation they can find true fault with.  If they don’t do what they are doing, a lot of these radicals will be voted out and replaced with another round of amateurs who will flounder in futility as badly as the current crop of self proclaimed patriots.

Now, yes.  Anger against the GOP over this fiasco may cost some Republicans from more balanced, moderate districts their jobs in 2014, but it won’t be the far, far right minority.

This may be enough to toss the House back to the Dems, which may actually lead to a functioning Congress for a while.

But it doesn’t fix the problem.  The real problem is the procedural rules in both houses.  These arcane and, often, insane rules emerged over decades as one party or the other struggled against the domination of the other.

A silver lining to come out of all of this may be that rules reform could be a real winning campaign issue in 2014.  Usually, when the minority party comes into power, they, for many reasons, leave this stuff. 

However, I think candidate that campaign on reform could really do well in 2014, which may or may not lead to reform actually happening, but let’s cross one bridge at a time here.  For the GOP, this may be a critical strategy.  Yeah, my party broke the country, but I want to fix it.  Depending on how bad things get, this may be the only strategy they have.

If this comes to pass, then this current fiasco may lead to some really positive change down the  road.  And it really will take a disaster to make such change possible.  But maybe it will be worth it, in the long run.

For there to be any hope of reform, though, things are going to have to get a lot worse first.  If this stalemate is resolved soon, and if we end up not defaulting on our debts, then the electorate will have forgotten these events 13 months from now.  Sad but true.

And make no mistake, this is exactly why this is happening right now.

I am not rooting for disaster.  But, if it comes, then this will be my happy thought as I rummage through the dumpsters trying to keep the boys fed. 

President Obama’s Brilliant Strategy No One Seems To Recognize | FreakOutNation

President Obama’s Brilliant Strategy No One Seems To Recognize | FreakOutNation:

 "And there is no way Obama is going to launch this attack once Congress says no. It would be political suicide. Bush may have gotten away with it but America is not going to let it happen again. The fallout would signal the end of any and all effectiveness the Obama administration for the remaining years of his presidency. And history would place him with the likes of war criminals like George W. Bush and Dick Cheney. Let me repeat this. Obama is not that stupid! 

"So why then does our president appear to be beating the drums of war? The simple answer is he is now regarded as a hawkish leader before the US and the world. And he does so without having to fire a shot. He appears wholeheartedly in favor of a strike and is playing the part well. The hawk stands upon his perch without lifting a talon as Congress now takes any and all responsibility for lack of action on the part of the US. "

'via Blog this'

2012 Election: Lazy thoughts on the morning after…

 

http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/results/president

I could have slept for another hour, but laying in bed, listening to NPR, my head kept filling with sleepy thoughts about yesterday so I decided to jot them down…

Florida.  You’re Fired.

Florida…  You are just like every woman I’ve known from Miami.  Crazy and sexy.  And crazy.  And, did I mention, because I want to be very clear about this, crazy. 

But still damn sexy.

Good job America. Probably a wise idea not to invite Florida to the party this year. Yeah, they look way hot, but then they show up, get all sloppy, make out with the wrong guy, pass out, and stay too late.

Sometimes, at their worst, you get up the next day and find them still passed out on your carpet for the twenty plus mornings...

And she’s still sexy all down there on the floor like that.  Must have something to do with all that crazy.

I think both parties now have had enough of Florida and will pretty much not playing there any more.  There are other, more solid and predictable ways to win an election that getting caught in the swamp down there.

Speeches

Good speeches from everyone. Blown away by Obama's. Sure, it was more enthusiasm than content but its his night and it rocked. There will be time for nuts and bolts later.  Romney seemed to come in a little later than he should have, but from what I understand, part of this might have been because he had not prepared a concession speech. 

I am also sure they were taking a real close look at Florida and Ohio, but after Virginia went blue, all hope was lost. 

Apparently they had ground teams of lawyers ready to go in Ohio and Florida and a third team ready to pounce on a third state, but Obama’s lead was significant enough in enough states that it was clear that there would be no legal recourse that could snatch a victory from the ashes.

For the most part, though, I think we were all surprised by how early this was called last night.  I was amazed when CBS, our choice for the evening, called it around 8:30 our time.  I was guessing it would be around 10 pm our time before this happened.  Not the first blown call of mine about yesterday.

I think this is why it took so long for both candidates to make it to the stage last night. 

Red States Vs. Blue States

From here on out in presidential elections, I am feeling like we have some new blue states.  This was a partisan election and there really was little in the way of swing.  The Democrats won because they ran the better campaign, especially when it came to local organization.  Turn out was the deciding factor, and the Democrats won yesterday.

It is hard to tell and I am sure it will be close in these “swing” states next time around as well, but I think the blue state club is getting a little bigger.

This is going to be tough for the GOP the next time out.  Earlier I wrote about not inviting Florida to the party any more, but the GOP may have little choice.  It may be the only true big swing state left.

Though this is not entirely true.  In an election that is less closely contested, there is some room for swing.  But three out of the last four presidential elections have been partisan elections without a breakout front runner going into election day, and let’s remember, 2008 was pretty close too with McCain not completely out of the game as America headed out to the polls.

Nate Silver

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/06/live-blog-the-2012-presidential-election/

I was wrong to ever doubt you, man.  Whoa.  He called this one.  Nailed it.  Still not sure about Florida, but he only put the odds of an Obama victory there at a little over 50%, so either way, I’d say he picked 50 out of 50 this year.

On the right are his last predictions from election day morning.

Election Coverage

I stuck with CBS last night because it came in on our rabbit ears and the other option, ABC, kept cutting over to the local election coverage which, quite frankly, bored the heck out of me.  Plus, the ABC team was awful.  Diane Sawyer, off script?  Oh my.  My head hurts.

CBS seemed a little better. 

But, really, what just strikes me is how so many people were surprised by the results last night. 

These days everyone is looking for a narrative thread in their reporting.  They are focused on telling stories, not on reporting the facts.

So we had the narrative of Romney’s “momentum.”  This was fueled by the GOP talking heads trying to sell the story, which was never really backed up in the polls, and the media buying it.

Looking for facts to maintain this narrative arc, too much attention was put on the national polls, which have been worthless since the 2000 election. 

Sure, those polls are an interesting piece of the puzzle, but they are a small piece.  But it was the piece that supported the narrative so they were given too much weight by the press going in.

Yesterday, glancing around most of the national news websites, the screaming headlines were that the race was too close to call and that anything could happen on election night.  Of course, if you drilled down a bit- quite a bit- it became clear that Obama pretty much wrapped this one up about ten days ago and had only been increasing his lead since then, around the time I made my first prediction.

So the media narrative last night concluded with Obama smashing through with an unexpectedly large victory in the electoral college, either coming from behind for a decisive 4th quarter victory, or breaking away from a tied game in the final seconds.

However, the facts never supported these narratives.  And, once upon a time, it was the press’ job to tell us the facts to the best of their ability, not to construct narrative arcs for us.

So 2012 is a big media fail in my book.  Not quite “Dewey Defeats Truman”, but close.

The real story of this election is the validation of modeling systems such as Nate Silver’s.  There were a number of intangibles heading into this election day and those of us following this part of the story through the last days of the campaign were all second guessing whether these models really considered and accounted for all of the “intangibles”.

I, myself, tried to “correct” Nate’s numbers with my own assumptions about over and under polling and turn out.  I did call that the GOP would have a harder time getting out their base, but I missed that the Democrats would do even better than they did in 2008 in getting the blue base out.

In the raw polls, in most states, there was an underperforming candidate, and it was Obama.

This the big story and surprise this morning.  Not that the President won the states he won, but the margins by which he won them.

Now, the right wing media…  Wow.  If the mainstream media failed to mention that Obama pretty much had the election locked up, well, the right was going not only with a Romney win but some were even going all the way to Romney landslide.

Were these people stupid?  No.  Well, some of them, but not all of them.  I’ve said it before, this was the only play left in the game book.  1% or 2% will just vote for who they think will win.  Those are votes you want.  If Obama lost, I would be bashing them this morning for NOT playing this card.  They might have been able to run the numbers up a little more if they had.

It is also about the base.  If our guy is going down, it is hard to get the motivation to go stand in line for minutes to hours to vote.  Hell, if you’re like me, sometimes its even hard to get the ballot in the mailbox, even when you are fired up!  But when you are already demoralized?

So this was pretty much a calculated move to get their base up out of their lazy boys.  Be a part of something big!

What shocks me is that it looks like a lot of people who should have known better fell for it.  Including, it appears, Romney himself.  I think he really expected to win last night.  Maybe not by a lot, but by enough.

I know not everyone at the top level of his campaign felt this way or else he wouldn’t have been wasting time and treasure in Pennsylvania the last few days.  That was a pure desperation move, born from irretrievably losing Ohio in the final days.

A lot of his supporters drank the kool-aid.  The buzz I’ve seen from the other side is not, shucks, we lost a close one but, rather, “What the hell happened?  We were supposed to win.”

The word Mandate is as meaningless as the word Momentum

Kudos, so far, to the Dems for not going here, but I am hearing a lot of talking heads trying to use the word mandate this morning.  In 2004, the GOP was using this word after winning one of the narrowest presidential victories of the last 50 years, but since it was a larger margin than they had in 2000, they took a swing at claiming a mandate and got a little traction in the press for their efforts.

This year, since Obama won by a narrower margin than 2008, every one is saying that there is no mandate…  Okay.  I won’t argue.

Because it is a meaningless word.

There are many factors that will determine the level of bipartisanship through the next congressional term.  The president’s margin of victory was never going to be one of them.  Mostly, because of historical patterns, the GOP should know that they do not have the luxury of being a do nothing congress heading into 2014. 

It will be a repeat of 2010 unless they do something.  Anything.  And since they are stuck with Obama for two years past 2014, they should be aware enough to know that he holds all the cards now.

And it has nothing to do with 2012 margins.

Zombie Parties

During the 1980s, the Democratic Party was declared dead.  In the 1990s, the Republican party was declared dead.  In the aughts, the Democratic Party was declared dead.  In the teens, starting last night, I’ve been hearing, guess it, guess it…

No party is dead.  Yes, the Democrats have figured out how to win presidential elections, I will give them this.  This is the first knock down, drag out, get your base to the polls or you are going to lose partisan election that they have won in a very long time, perhaps in my lifetime, and it is good to see.  It is healthy. 

And I think the GOP needs to solve it’s little Tea Party problem before it can get back in that game.

But they are not dead. Like I said, I think we’ve got a couple new blue states in the presidential elections.  This is a story really told when you look at the county by county red v. blue maps.  But it does not mean that the GOP is out “for a generation” as people are always saying about one party or another.

The House

The flip side is the House.  A true sign of how close this election really was is the House races.  It took everything, EVERYTHING, the Dems had to hang onto the presidency and there was not much left for the House.

I really think if more effort had been put into it, they could have taken the House this year.  But it took so much effort to keep Obama in office that there was nothing left.

I know, myself, I barely paid any attention to the Congressional races this year.  Partly that is due to the fact that I live in a solidly blue district where our incumbent usually only has token competition from year to year, but it is also because everyone was working so hard on the presidential campaign that we just didn’t have much left for the House this year.

2014?  That is a different story.  If the new Democrat machine targets the house, it is theirs, unless the Republican caucus really makes some big strategic changes over the next two years.  If they do, then they might actually hang on to it.  The ball is very much in their hands.

I think the GOP will start working with Obama.  They’ll have to if they want to survive in the House.

Up through last night the GOP caucus has been saying they want to negotiate with Obama, but their definition of negotiate is, “Give us what we want, exactly as we want it, or we will say you are playing partisan politics and shred you in the next election.”

We’ll see if the current crop of Reps is smart enough to figure out that this game is played out.  They will need to change strategies or they are going down hard in the midterms.

When functioning well, I actually think having some party splits between the executive and legislative branches of government can be a healthy thing.  When it works, it works by getting the best ideas through from each party, and blocking the more sketchy ideas.  But what we’ve had for awhile, coming to a head with the current Congress, is far from that.  There is nothing healthy about the state of Congress right now at all.

Can they change?  That is the real question.  They may not be able to unless the entire Republican Party grows a pair and quits being held hostage by the Tea Party.  It cost them the presidency this year and will cost them the House in 2014 unless the party grown ups man up and take a stand for sanity.

Post-Election Silence

I’m not going away permanently, but now that the election is over, I’ll be posting to this blog on a much less frequent basis.  I’ll still be checking in from time to time, but probably not much until December. 

Finally, now that this long national debate is over, I can focus on writing the NaNoWriMo novel that I should have been working on this morning instead of writing this post!

This blog has been around since 2004, though.  Sometimes I drift away, but I always come back, eventually.

I Love This Speech

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/11/06/us/politics/06-obama-election-night-speech.html

 

Related Posts

from tag Vote

• Democracy In Distress: 2012 Election: Electoral Prediction Revised

from tag Win

• Democracy In Distress: Marriage Equality: President Obama & North Carolina
• Democracy In Distress: The End of Don't Ask, Don't Tell
• Democracy In Distress: Rubble: Photo of the Day by A. F. Litt: November 20, 2011, Democracy In Distress
• Democracy In Distress: Suburban Eschatology Part Two - September 12th, 2010: 30 Mosques, 30 Days
• Democracy In Distress: Occupy Portland Eviction: 12:01 AM, Police Deployment & Injury, Sunday Morning Victory

from tag Obama

• Democracy In Distress: General Election 2012: It’s on… Right after a nap… Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz…….
• Democracy In Distress: GOP: Selling the American Dream and Winning Elections
• Democracy In Distress: Chart: Barack Obama & Ronald Reagan... Separated at birth?
• Democracy In Distress: How Mitt Romney will win tonight’s debate
• Democracy In Distress: Romney’s plunge towards the debates: Don’t count him out yet
• Democracy In Distress: 2012 Election: Yes, I Did!

(more..)

2012 Election: Yes, I Did!

Yes, I did.

How we do it in Oregon! (Well, if we didn't mail the damned thing weeks ago)

 

 

 

 

 

Beware: Posting a Picture of Your Marked Ballot to Facebook May Be Illegal - Rebecca J. Rosen - The Atlantic:

Want to share your vote with the world? Don't do it by photo unless you are sure of the laws in your state.

Here's to a little civil disobedience!

These laws are important in polling places, where showing a filled out ballot to another person can be seen as campaigning or even voter intimidation. Taking a picture of a ballot at home? Harmless.

PS:  This fellow lost last night.  Seems like a fine person, but there were some concerns that he’s be messing with voting rights.

Related Posts

from tag Obama

• Democracy In Distress: General Election 2012: It’s on… Right after a nap… Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz…….
• Democracy In Distress: Putin, Clinton, & Bush… Oh my! The current, dynastic period of American history
• Democracy In Distress: How Mitt Romney will win tonight’s debate
• Democracy In Distress: 2012 Vice Presidential Debate Results, Predictions for Tuesday & November
• Democracy In Distress: Obama Mail: Tipsheet: Romney's big speech
• Democracy In Distress: GOP: Selling the American Dream and Winning Elections
• Democracy In Distress: Code Speak: Politics, bigotry, & the problem with Santorum
• Democracy In Distress: The war on women & Santorum’s choice
• Democracy In Distress: Santorum & Obama: Which is worse for religion?
• Democracy In Distress: Chart: Barack Obama & Ronald Reagan... Separated at birth?
• Democracy In Distress: Obama Mail: Today’s Republican Talking Points
• Democracy In Distress: Marriage Equality: President Obama & North Carolina

(more..)

2012 Election: Electoral Prediction Revised

Okay…  I am revising my predictions for Tuesday.  Slightly.  I will point out that my electoral count has not changed much since my first prediction, but I think I have a better view as to how we will arrive there.

On the right are Nate Silver’s current predictions.  He’s using math.  I am using his math, a couple different poll averages, and then spinning it through my gut.

When I made my first prediction, it looked like Colorado was more likely to go Obama than Virginia.  Today, I thought about flip flopping those two states.  However, they are both close enough that I am actually going to toss both of them over to Romney right now. 

If I was running the Obama campaign, does this mean that I’d concede these states and refocus the spending on other states?  Oh hell no.  In fact, Nate Silver has both Colorado and Virginia going blue on Tuesday night, but I don’t like the odds he has on Colorado and, well, Virginia is Virginia.  They might not have a working telephone when the pollsters call, but they will probably vote, so I want a big margin there before I go blue with Virginia.  Yes, Obama has made gains there since I made my prediction.  Not enough for me to turn it blue, though.

So, Ohio.  Well…  I still am nervous about Ohio.  Flip this red and, with my other updates, we’ve got President Romney. 

I am, however, cautiously accepting conventional wisdom today and turning it blue.  I think Obama is pulling ahead just enough now for me to lay to rest my immediate fear about, um, intangible and unpredictable factors in Ohio affecting the outcome on Tuesday.

One major factor in all of my predictions?  Romney out performing the polls by 1% to 3%, depending on the state.  This is why I’ve also tossed New Hampshire to Romney.  This is a really close call for me.  My gut does lean towards Obama here, he does have a 2% lead in the poll average (1.5% on RCP) and Nate has it with a 79.4% chance of an Obama win here, but it is just not enough for me.  This is a state where I want to see Obama leading by 3% in all the averages and Nate showing at least an 80%.  I hope to be wrong here, but I am being very conservative in my predictions. 

So, looking at the vote totals, I am still pretty close to my original prediction.  In fact, I almost let my original map stand, since it did have the caveat that it was more about predicting the vote totals rather than how we get there in two nights and I wasn’t sure that a 5 vote change in my prediction was enough to warrant a second post.

But there were enough changes in my state by state predictions, I felt, to justify taking a little time to revise my map. 

It is a tight race.  Not as tight as many in the media would have you think, but a little tighter than many pollsters and pundits are predicting right now, I think.  I still think Obama getting close to or more than 300 voted is pretty unlikely.  However, I think his re-election is pretty likely.

I think this is it.  I no longer see any new factors having time to gain enough traction between this morning and Tuesday morning to significantly change my predictions.  Of course, Romney may be discovered to have a second, third, and fourth wives or being a paid operative of the Chinese government and Obama may reveal himself to be the Anti-Christ, but really? 

I think all of the cards are on the table now and even Sandy, well…  Obama has at least a 10 point lead in the states the most affected by the storm, so while changes in margins there are possible due to the devastation, I do not think they will be enough to change the outcome in those states.

Popular Vote:  Too Close To Predict

As for the popular vote?  I’ll revise that to being a coin toss.  I am changing my prediction of a Romney victory there to a too close to call prediction right now.  Edge to Obama, perhaps, but I won’t put my money on that bet either way right now.

Previous Prediction

2012 Election: Polls & Predictions… A narrow and divided victory for Obama?
Election 2012: Ohio for Romney? Really?

Related Posts

from tag Polls

• Democracy In Distress: 2012, Debate # 2 analysis & how late night comedy writers will select our next President
• Democracy In Distress: It’s a Trap! Thoughts on the 1st Obama / Romney Debate
• Democracy In Distress: What do I believe in? The political world according to A. F. Litt
• Democracy In Distress: Chart: Barack Obama & Ronald Reagan... Separated at birth?

from tag Romney

• Democracy In Distress: The war on women & Santorum’s choice
• Democracy In Distress: God, Politics, Education, & Evolution: Some recent articles
• Democracy In Distress: GOP & 2012: A grab bag of headlines from everyone's favorite dysfunctional family
• Democracy In Distress: 2012 Vice Presidential Debate Results, Predictions for Tuesday & November
• Democracy In Distress: Marriage Equality: President Obama & North Carolina
• Democracy In Distress: How Mitt Romney will win tonight’s debate
• Democracy In Distress: Romney’s plunge towards the debates: Don’t count him out yet
• Democracy In Distress: General Election 2012: It’s on… Right after a nap… Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz…….

(more..)

Election 2012: Ohio for Romney? Really?

Yes.  I am sticking to my map. Some disagree with predicting that Ohio will go for Romney. Here is a closer look at that...

Honestly, fear of fraud is one reason I put Ohio in the red.

The second reason is that I am not confident that Obama will sweep the toss up states, and this is a way to show that one of the worst possibilities for Obama would still lead to a narrow victory, more a case playing with the vote numbers than actually predicting which specific states will break red or blue...

But the main reason? I am having a lot of flashbacks to Ohio in 2004 right now.

Here are the pre-election polls for 2004 in Ohio:

D.C. Political Report: Slight Republican
Associated Press: Toss Up
CNN: Kerry
Cook Political Report: Toss Up
Newsweek: Toss Up
New York Times: Toss Up
Rasmussen Reports: Toss Up
Research 2000: Toss Up
Washington Post: Battleground
Washington Times: Battleground
Zogby International: Tied
Washington Dispatch: Kerry

I think Ohio is harder to call than a lot of states due to its demographics and mix of urban and rural areas.

I really hope that it goes to Obama, that would make this election a slam dunk for him. But, I am not ready to bet on it.

I am pretty sure this is why a lot of other people are not ready to call Ohio one way or the other yet, also, even though it is leaning Obama, just as it was leaning Kerry in 2004.

United States presidential election in Ohio, 2004 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia:

Pre-election polling showed a lot of volatility throughout the general election. In September, Bush was gaining momentum here reaching over 50% in several polls and even reaching double digit margins in some.

But in October, Kerry gained back momentum as he started winning many of the polls, leading between 48% to as high as 50%. The last 3 polls averaged Kerry leading 49% to 48%.

Related Posts

from tag Voting

• Democracy In Distress: Putin, Clinton, & Bush… Oh my! The current, dynastic period of American history

from tag 2004

• Democracy In Distress: How Mitt Romney will win tonight’s debate

from tag Kerry

• Democracy In Distress: 2012, Debate # 2 analysis & how late night comedy writers will select our next President
• Democracy In Distress: Romney’s plunge towards the debates: Don’t count him out yet

from tag History

• Retrovirus Lab: 100th Post! What I am Listening To Now: "Sub Pop Rock City" by Soundgarden
• Democracy In Distress: Council of Elders express solidarity with Occupy Wall Street
• Retrovirus Lab: Listen to the first recording of human voices…
• Retrovirus Lab: 100th Post! What I am Listening To Now: "Sub Pop Rock City" by Soundgarden
• Retrovirus Lab: Alternative meaninglessness…
• Retrovirus Lab: “Show Me the Place” by Leonard Cohen & A lost Leonard Cohen album?
• Democracy In Distress: Eisenhower warning about the Military-Industrial Complex (including the complete Farewell Address)
• Retrovirus Lab: What I Am Listening To Now: "The Fly," "Zoo Station," & "Where Did It All Go Wrong?" by U2

(more..)

2012 Election: Polls & Predictions… A narrow and divided victory for Obama?

It’s getting close to the end now and I am starting to get some gut feelings about this one.  Still, overall, I wouldn’t be surprised by either outcome in the presidential race.  However, I would be slightly less surprised if Obama won. 

November 6 is going to be an interesting night.

Game Changers

A little over a week out… Is it too late for any game changers? 

Probably, but a few things do come to mind.  First, Florida looks like it is tightening up again.  If it tilts blue, done.  Early night a week from Tuesday and we all get a good night’s sleep.

Also, as we get a little closer, there is always the possibility that the press starts paying more attention to the fact that it is really going to be tough for Romney to win the Electoral Vote unless the polls are as far off as Dewey / Truman in 1948.  If the media starts talking about Obama’s Electoral Vote Firewall instead of Romney’s questionable momentum (basically manufactured by GOP talking heads, not recent polls), then this could break more in Obama’s direction.

Why?  Because 1% to 2% of these idiotic, undecided swing voters are going to vote for whoever is in the lead because they want to vote for the winner.  Usually this segment is small enough that it does not effect the outcome of the election, but in super tight races?  Who knows?  Usually when super tight races head into election day, they are too close to call and these folks stay home.  But if Obama is looking solid heading into election day, these folks might show up and vote for him, increasing his possible margin of victory.  

Hell, they might even win Obama the popular vote, but more on that later.

Another possibility, especially if the press starts giving more time to Obama’s Electoral Vote advantages…  Romney starts making some last minute, desperate Hail Mary swings through the silly zone.  When this guy goes big, he starts getting strange. 

At this point, though, can any further goofy headlines effect Romney?  Who knows?  But if he is feeling desperate, we may see some interesting moments a la John McCain’s “See, I’m Not To Old To Be President” marathon bus tour on the eve of the election.

Most likely… I predict we might see things firming up a little bit more for Obama in the state by state races, but I think we are pretty much heading into the popular vote within the margin of error, therefore tied.

So yes.  I am going ahead and posting my predictions for November 6. 

I reserve the right to change my mind later if something crazy happens.

Numbers & Predictions: All Hail Nate Silver

First of all… Let’s jam through the who’s, what’s, and what’s everyone saying…

Five Thirty Eight: Nate Silver's Political Calculus: Oct. 25: The State of the States - NYTimes.com:

Thursday was a busy day for the polls, with some bright spots for each candidate. But it made clear that Barack Obama maintains a narrow lead in the polling averages in states that would get him to 270 electoral votes. Mr. Obama also remains roughly tied in the polls in two other states, Colorado and Virginia, that could serve as second lines of defense for him if he were to lose a state like Ohio.

The day featured the release of 10 national polls, but there was little in the way of a consistent pattern in them.

Nate Silver's Newest Prediction: 73% Obama!:

Although the race is still close in several swing states, statistical guru Nate Silver’s newest prediction is 73.1% Obama to 26.9% Romney

Nate Silver’s track record on election predictions is pretty solid, so much so that the GOP is going after him, apparently.

Republicans Desperate to Spin Romney as the Front-Runner Are Becoming 'Nate Silver Truthers' | Alternet:

…in recent days, the Romney-Ryan campaign has claimed that it's moving ahead. As Jonathan Chait noted, “This is a bluff. Romney is carefully attempting to project an atmosphere of momentum, in the hopes of winning positive media coverage and, thus, creating a self-fulfilling prophecy.” Despite zero evidence that Romney has made any gains since receiving a healthy bounce from the first debate, reporters appear to be buying it, with a raft of lazy stories about Mitt Romney's supposed “momentum.”

A significant problem for conservatives bent on spinning this alternate reality is New York Times ' polling guru Nate Silver and his 538 forecast model, which called 49 out of 50 states accurately in 2008 and is considered the industry's gold standard (the model also pretty much nailed the 2010 mid-terms).

Yeah, don’t even get me started on the “raft of lazy stories about Mitt Romney's supposed ‘momentum.’”  I called that one back before the first debate.

Democracy In Distress: How Mitt Romney will win the first debate:

…what happens next really depends on media spin.  Not the partisan talking heads, but the producers, writers, editors, reporters and directors out there.

The media wants a story to tell.  If the election is pretty much settled a month out, that leaves four weeks of dead air time…  Which they will fill by trying to create the feeling that the race is much closer than it really is.  The problem?  People will start believing it, and everyone loves a come from behind underdog, right?

Sorry, got distracted there for a second.  The press is dead to me and I mourn them from time to time…

Numbers & Predictions: Nate Silver vs. My Gut

So, Nate’s current prediction... 

This map brings the Electoral Vote in with Obama winning 303 to 235.  Even if he only calls 49 out of 50, it is a happy night for Team Obama. 

Unless, of course, Nate blows the Ohio call for Obama. 

Oh.  Oops.  Sorry, that was the conventional wisdom I’ve been hearing from press outlets hungry for a story. 

If only one of Nate’s Obama states go for Romney instead, pulling off the 49 out of 50 prediction from 2008, then Obama still wins “easily.”

Colorado, Virginia, and Ohio pretty much ALL have to shift over to Romney for the U.S. to elect its first Mormon president with a final electoral count of  275 Romney to 263 Obama.  (P.S.  I have no problem with a Mormon President and, I fear, that might be the coolest thing about a Romney Administration…)

Of course, there are other paths to 270 for Romney, but this would be the most likely.

There are also a couple paths that lead to the House of Representatives deciding this one.  Even more unlikely than a Romney presidency, but more likely than in most elections.

Nate’s calling this for Obama with a pretty big margin in the Electoral Vote and a bigger margin in the Popular Vote than I am comfortable with right now. 

I think it’s going to be closer.  How much closer?  2000 close? 

I hope not.  But my Electoral College prediction looks frightenly similar to the 2000 numbers.

My Prediction for the Electoral Vote: Obama Wins, 272 to 266

Right now, my personal prediction looks a lot tighter than Nate’s. 

This is the tightest it can be with Obama still coming out on top.  Right now, too many things have to break Romney’s way for him to win, in too many states that are leaning blue.  However, unlike Nate Silver, I do not see Obama sweeping all of the “tied” states right now.  This is my worst case scenario for an Obama victory, but I do not think Obama will break 300, though as of now I think he will get 270.

And I am worried enough about shenanigans in Ohio that I am tossing the state to Romney in my prediction.

Obama-Romney Race May Hinge on 2 Ohio Counties | RealClearPolitics:

If the race for president can be boiled down to two key counties in one key state, then those jurisdictions are Hamilton and Cuyahoga, here in the Buckeye State.

And, as Dan Rather put it on election night in 2000, "This race is tight like a too-small bathing suit on a too-long ride home from the beach."

My Prediction for the Popular Vote: Mitt Romney Wins

As for the popular vote, unless some of the game changers I mentioned above occur, I am predicting that Romney will win the popular vote.  Yeah, I know Nate went with Obama.  But I don’t.

I don’t like or trust CNN polling this year.  I think they are swinging towards Romney where possible and I believe that they are holding back on making some pretty solid calls on the electoral map just to keep viewers interested and watching, but I do feel like Romney has a slightly insurmountable lead in the COMPLETELY MEANINGLESS national polls. 

However, CNN is not the only one showing Romney holding steady in the national polls. 

The polls are pretty much all over the place, but with Obama only leading in three of eleven and tied in one other, I think it is looking pretty bad for Obama in the popular vote.  But, as I said earlier, it doesn’t matter.  Even if we all slept through our civics classes back in junior high, everyone should be real clear on this after the 2000 election - the national popular vote decides nothing.

This Day In History

So, how does this year compare to years past…

2000 was all over the place, a lot like this year. Below is a link to 10 different polls from this date in 2000. 

Bush led in 8 out of 10 polls by margins ranging from 2% to 7%.  Gore led in two polls, by 2% and 3%.

However, the most interesting numbers in these polls come from the swing between Likely Voters and Registered Voters in Newsweek’s poll.

Bush Gains Back Lead in CNN Poll; Gore Maintains Zogby Poll Lead:

Thursday, Oct. 26, 2000

NewsWeek – likely voters (Oct. 18-20)

• Bush 48%
  Gore 41%

NewsWeek – all registered voters (Oct. 18-20)

• Gore 45%
  Bush 42%
  

If this year’s election is still up for grabs, then I predict it will be decided by which side gets their base out and by which side can motivate swing voters leaning in their direction to actually show up and vote. 

This could be a real problem for both sides.  Obama’s base is somewhat dissatisfied with him not living up to the superhuman expectations built up in 2008, and Romney’s party actually thought about going with winners like Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum before giving into the inevitable and nominating the only candidate that had with a snowball’s chance in hell of beating Obama.

When it comes down to it, I think the advantage here goes to Romney.  I think the far right’s hatred of Obama will overcome their ambivalence about Romney.  And I don’t think the far left has a motivational force of that caliber working on its side this time around, though the “rape is a gift from God” stories couldn’t have hit at a worse time for the GOP.  But it is probably not enough to balance out the Obama hatred.

However, will that be enough to beat Obama?  Probably not.  In 2004, the far left had this hatred for the GOP candidate working on their side.  They also had their own version of Romney in John Kerry.  It was a close election, it came down to Ohio, there might even have been a few shenanigans in Ohio, but not enough to make a difference in the outcome, most likely.  It was Bush’s night with or without the shenanigans.

Electoral Maps 1972-2008:

The 2004 US Presidential Election

The electoral map shown below depicts the results of the 2004 U.S. presidential election in which George W. Bush defeated John Kerry.  Bush carried 31 states and 50.7% of the popular vote.

Here is a look at the 2004 polls from this point in that election.  Today we probably have about a 1% spread between Romney and Obama. Kerry was down by around 2%. All within the margin of error for everything.

One thing is for certain, this is no 2008, when Obama comfortably had the popular vote wrapped up by this point.

Are We Locked In?  Is This A Done Deal?

Well, in the past, including these elections we are looking at here, there have been some changes in the polls heading into the last week.  Usually whomever leads through October wins, which is what the GOP is counting on right now.

However, this is not always the case.  Of course there was Dewey / Truman in 1948.  The GOP candidate was leading Truman by fairly large margins from the spring on.  The final Gallup poll had Truman losing with 44.5%, and he was behind by about 5% at the end of October.  He ended up winning with 49.9% of the popular vote.

In 1952, in the Gallup poll, Stevenson shot up by about 10% in the last couple weeks of the election, with Eisenhower at 51% in the final survey.  It wasn’t enough and the General won with 55.4% of the popular vote.

1960…  Nixon closed around a 4% gap to a 2% gap in the last month or so, and this momentum continued to election day with Kennedy barely squeaking out a 50.1% victory in the popular vote.  In fact, this election was so close, that in a different day and age, it might have gone like 2000.

In 1968 we had a three party election with Wallace absorbing 13.53% of the popular vote and winning five states (46 electoral votes).  Through October into November, Humphrey closed an 8% gap to about 1% going into election day.  But Nixon’s lead held, of course.

Perhaps the modern election that most resembles the 2012 race is the 1976 contest between Ford and Carter. 

1976 Gallup tracking poll: Ford vs. Carter(very interesting reading!!):

Ford made up additional ground following the third debate in late October, again pulling even. In the final pre-election poll, Gallup's numbers indicated a statistical dead heat among likely voters, with Ford at 49% and Carter 48% (the unallocated numbers had Ford at 47% and Carter at 46%). The actual outcome was 50% for Carter and 48% for Ford. The election was so close that it was not certain that Carter would win until the morning after Election Day.

Then of course, we have the 2000 election… At one point in October, Gore was actually down by 13% in the Gallup survey.  By this week in 2000, Gore had closed the gap to 5% according to Gallup, and he continued to surge (if Gallup’s numbers were right, which is unlikely looking at the chaos in the polls that year). 

Of course, Gore ended up winning the popular vote 48.38% to 47.87%.  Of course, 543,895 popular votes count for nothing compared to Bush’s five extra electoral votes (271-266).

So is this over?  Absolutely not, when it comes to the popular vote.  However, Obama is looking pretty solid in the Electoral College unless the polls are off by 1948 margins, which is pretty unlikely considering the refinements in the polling process over the last 64 years.

Could This Be Another Bush / Gore Style Nightmare?

Short answer, yes.  It is possible. 

Could it break like 1960, where Nixon chose not to contest the counts in several close precincts?  Maybe. 

My gut tells me that it all depends on who is up and who is down.  I suspect the man that will say anything to be president would push it as far as it went in 2000, clinging to any chance at all to be president (for all you tea partiers that think I am talking about Obama, sorry).  Obama, I suspect, is smart enough to see how damaging that process can be to the country, and might not take it that far.

Even in 2004, there were enough questions in Ohio that some thought that Kerry should have called for some recounts.  He, however, chose to accept what was probably inevitable and to go out as a classy winner instead of a sore loser.  This was not like 2000 where it was very likely that more voters did vote for the candidate that lost than the candidate that won in the disputed state.  This was less unlikely to be the case in Ohio in 2004.

Unfortunately for Obama, the elections this year most resembles, poll wise, are 1960, 1976, and 2000.  Like 2000, the polls are a bit all over the place.  Like 1976, we have an fairly unpopular incumbent and an untested outsider hovering within a percentage point of each other.  Like 1960, we have a candidate losing the first debate only to slowly crawl his way back in the polls through the later debates and up into the election. 

The final results for the 1960?  “In the national popular vote, Kennedy beat Nixon by just one tenth of one percentage point (0.1%)—the closest popular-vote margin of the 20th century. In the Electoral College, Kennedy's victory was larger, as he took 303 electoral votes to Nixon's 219 (269 were needed to win).” (Wikipedia) 

303 is also the number Nate Silver is calling for Obama as of the evening of the 26th, according to his map, at least.

So, parallels?  1960, Romney as Kennedy, Obama as Nixon because of the debates…. Romney wins.  1976…  Incumbent loses to challenger.  Romney wins.  2000…  Late surging Gore pulls off a popular vote victory and loses the election.  Romney wins. 

But, Obama fans, take faith in the 2004 election….  In many ways, this year’s election bears more resemblance to that one than any of these others when looking at more than just the polls. 

And our, oh sweet Jesus, Bush wins in the end. 

Related Posts

from tag Gore

• Democracy In Distress: 2012, Debate # 2 analysis & how late night comedy writers will select our next President
• Democracy In Distress: 2012 Vice Presidential Debate Results, Predictions for Tuesday & November
• Democracy In Distress: How Mitt Romney will win tonight’s debate

from tag Polls

• Democracy In Distress: It’s a Trap! Thoughts on the 1st Obama / Romney Debate
• Democracy In Distress: What do I believe in? The political world according to A. F. Litt
• Democracy In Distress: Chart: Barack Obama & Ronald Reagan... Separated at birth?

from tag Bush

• Democracy In Distress: Romney’s plunge towards the debates: Don’t count him out yet
• Democracy In Distress: Putin, Clinton, & Bush… Oh my! The current, dynastic period of American history

from tag Incompetence

• Democracy In Distress: I am pretty sure I worked for this company before…
• Democracy In Distress: WTF!?!?! Tea Party Nation asks businesses to stop hiring as expression of tea party solidarity
• Democracy In Distress: What do Republicans have against science anyway?
• Democracy In Distress: Occupy Portland: F29 – Occupy the Corporations Grab-Bag

(more..)

2012, Debate # 2 analysis & how late night comedy writers will select our next President

While Tuesday’s debate was definitely a win for Obama, it left me with some very ambivalent feelings afterwards…  The following is compiled from my Facebook posts that evening:

Yes, he's not my guy, and I wasn't rooting for him, but from as an unbiased as a perspective as I can manage, I just need to say this...

I think Mitt Romney's debate tonight was the worst performance I've ever seen by a presidential candidate from either party ever. (Well, since the first one I watched in 1984, at least).

Yeah, the post debate “Who Won Tonight?” polls are close, because about 95% of those polled will say their guy won, no matter what. And don't give me that undecided voter crap on a spot poll taken in the five minutes before the candidates have even left the stage.

But this was a bad night for Romney. It may take a few days for that really to emerge. But it was bad. Bad Bad Bad Bad. Bad.

Bad candidate. Bad. "Was he just trying to help Paul Ryan feel better?" bad.

Going to the mat, standing by his misquote of the President, and then getting fact checked on the spot by the moderator, basically at his own request? YOU HAVE GOT TO BE FUCKING KIDDING ME!

This man wants to be the leader of the free world? Oh hells no.

See, this pisses me off. Yeah, I want Romney and Ryan to lose, but this shit is just bad for America, PERIOD.

I WANT two qualified candidates. I want a tough, close election because there is a real choice, not because of blind party loyalties. I want to be able to take both the GOP and the Democrats seriously.  While I rarely vote Republican, I want the option!

I take Obama seriously. Everyone else can pretty much piss off and die at this point. American politics? Dead.

Yeah, I was typing with fists on Tuesday… 

As for the Town Hall format, the moderators (though a big thumbs up to Crowley, it’s not like she busted in unsolicited), and the debate coverage in general…  In response to this post, “BTW, am I the only person that thinks regular Americans seem to ask better questions than paid reporters?—Dave” on The Pragmatic Progressive Page, I spat out, “Of course they do. Journalism is dead.”

Not a good campaign cycle for America.

Considering Romney’s train wreck of a performance on Tuesday, he is lucky that the takeaway is the “binders full of women” comment.  This will not help him, but there were far worse gaffes in the evening than this one.

So, Obama supporters, yes it is funny, but shut up about it.  People forgive legitimate jumbles of words in high stress situations.  Instead, pound on him for the real mistakes. 

Women in the workplace?  Sure, and we’ll even try to get them home in time to cook dinner.

Getting fact checked by the moderator, at his own request, and losing a point where he actually has some valid concerns and questions about a serious national security failure?

Saying that gun violence would be reduced if only there were more two parent families?

This is what noise should be made about, not the “Binders Full of Women.”  These jokes are funny, but they actually help Romney more than hurting him by distracting from his real gaffes on Tuesday.  Gaffes that might actually work towards changing public perceptions about the GOP contender.

This first clip illustrates a couple points I've been making in several of my posts.

First, people are going to think their candidate won no matter what happened in the debate.

Second, those on the fence are going to be swayed not by what happened during the 90 minute debate, but by the sound bites they hear on a two minute news segment, or by the jokes they hear on late night shows, Facebook, and other sources.

These people are shown supporting their candidate, declaring it a win for their guy, spouting pre-debate buzz about debate expectations, without realizing that the debate has not even happened yet. 

And people like this are going to be the one who decide this election, not the well informed voters who, on a regular basis, actually follow the issues being discussed in the debates. 

This election will be won by whomever attracts the least attention from the comics.  In elections that are not close, the jokes probably serve more as a barometer of public opinion, but in close elections, or even elections at decisive turning points, these jokes can actually shape public perceptions enough that they can change the outcome of an election.

A lot of words have been written over the years about how so many in the younger generations get most of their news from The Daily Show, Colbert, and other such sources, but this is not really a new phenomenon.

More than being the source for news, late night comics have provided the analysis of events that really tend to define how many Americans perceive their candidates.  Dukakis was slayed by these folks, losing his lead in 1988 after a series of gaffes that gave the comedy writers a bushel of full of material.  That election ended up not being as close as the last few, but…

Gore and the lock box in 2000?  Probably worth at least a few hundred votes in Florida.

Kerry / Bush in 2004?  Both were hammered about equally as hard.  Well, in these cases, we see that the tie goes to the incumbent.   

In 2008, one of the most masterful pieces of the Obama campaign was staying out of the late night headlights.  McCain, wandering around the town hall debate, Palin’s, well, everything?  These jokes sealed the deal for Obama.  The piling on as the outcome of the election looked more and more certain through the month of October?

This year, we see this playing out again.  Obama broadens his lead after a series of humorous gaffes by Romney, the race tightens after Obama is hammered in late night after the first debate, and now?  Well, over the next few nights, we’ll see, though I think we know where this will go.

So, the winner of the debates is pretty much decided by headlines and short sound bites on the evening and morning news shows.  The fallout, the shifts of momentum in close races, especially after conventions and debates?  Decided by the late night comics.

A lot of people are saying that the damage done by the first debate to the Obama campaign may have been irreversible.  Not necessarily ensuring a Romney victory, but ensuring a very close and tense election night.  And it might have been the deciding factor if Romney had been able to settle down and keep a low profile for the next two debates and not make any more bad mistakes.  Staying on script, never freewheeling it in public, let alone in front of cameras…

He didn’t do that. 

Earlier, I mentioned The Daily Show, and they have always (deservedly, my bias) gone harder after the GOP than the Dems, but this show does not have the influence of Saturday Night Live, Leno, and Letterman because its viewers tend to be progressive anyway.  Same for Fox News.  Whatever these two outlets are saying about the candidates may influence the

passion of the GOP or Democratic base, but they don’t have much of an influence on the almost completely apolitical swing voters who decide close elections.

I was hoping to post up the Leno and Letterman monologues from last night, but I couldn’t find them anywhere yet.  Apparently, CBS and NBC like to not post them online anywhere until they are stale and irrelevant. I haven’t seen them yet, myself. 

So here’s Conan instead.

 

Related Posts

from tag Romney

• Democracy In Distress: 2012 Vice Presidential Debate Results, Predictions for Tuesday & November
• Democracy In Distress: GOP: Selling the American Dream and Winning Elections
• Democracy In Distress: It’s a Trap! Thoughts on the 1st Obama / Romney Debate
• Democracy In Distress: How Mitt Romney will win tonight’s debate
• Democracy In Distress: Romney’s plunge towards the debates: Don’t count him out yet
• Democracy In Distress: God, Politics, Education, & Evolution: Some recent articles
• Democracy In Distress: Marriage Equality: President Obama & North Carolina
• Democracy In Distress: General Election 2012: It’s on… Right after a nap… Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz…….
• Democracy In Distress: The war on women & Santorum’s choice
• Democracy In Distress: From The Daily Show… All three parts of the interview with Jonathan Macey
• Democracy In Distress: GOP & 2012: A grab bag of headlines from everyone's favorite dysfunctional family

from tag Obama

• Democracy In Distress: Chart: Barack Obama & Ronald Reagan... Separated at birth?

(more..)